Vladimir Pilipenko
The former representative of Ukraine to the Venice Commission the withdrawal of Britain from Songliste patient. How the card will fall in the EU after BrexitPhoto: POLITICO Europe

If feel the Ukraine on at least some effect from the withdrawal of Britain from the European Union

21.03.19 4400

The British Parliament supported the government’s proposal to postpone the Brexit on June 30.

The corresponding decision was accepted on 14 March. But to really change the date of exit from the EU, you also need the approval of all 27 member countries of the Union.

Let me remind you, the final output of the United Kingdom from the European Union scheduled for March 29, 2019. Then begins a 21-month transition period, until the end of 2020, which can extend only once. However, to date it is not known what may be its maximum length.

Why all this “dances with a tambourine” around Brexit and the impact they have on Ukraine’s relations with the EU, try to understand.

Complex “divorce”

After the referendum of June 23, 2016 of withdrawal from the EU between London and Brussels began negotiations on the terms of such a withdrawal. And this is very important to understand the situation.

After the agreement on withdrawal from the EU should address a number of important issues — from compensation in favor of the EU, which is estimated at nearly 40 billion pounds, to the status of EU citizens in the UK and Vice versa. There was also the question of the settlement of the border between Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland, which will be the border between the United Kingdom and the EU.

The parties agreed to certain transitional period to harmonize trade issues and provide an opportunity for businesses to prepare. This means that in the case of the adoption of the agreement on withdrawal from the EU in the period between 29 March 2019 and 31 December 2020, no change will occur.

In November 2018 the United Kingdom and the EU agreed on the terms of the Agreement on secession from the Union. However, it should support the British Parliament. And he has twice voted against.

All this shows how ambiguous the results of the referendum, when viewed through the prism of representative democracy. Parliamentarians have not shown solidarity with its citizens.

Money, borders, and the right

Notice, the annual contribution of the United Kingdom to the EU budget is about 11 billion pounds. Therefore, the output of a United Europe — it is also a return to budget significant funds. The British government has agreed to pay such amount during the transition period that brought the financial obligations of the United Kingdom in connection with the exit from the EU to the level of almost 40 billion pounds. If the transition period will be extended, and compensation payments in favor of the EU will grow. Accordingly, the British Parliament concerned about the conditions, manner and amount of compensation.

No less sensitive issue — the border with Northern Ireland. Neither the EU nor the United Kingdom is not interested in the rehabilitation of border posts and customs control. The agreement contains special provisions that would allow Northern Ireland to apply certain customs rules of the EU, even in the case of exit from the United Kingdom.

It annoys some members, outraged by the failure of the United Kingdom to stop operation of EU norms without the permission of the Union. Because it would mean a long-term effect of foreign law. Other MPs insist on maintaining close relations with the EU, or even continued membership.

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The third group believes that Northern Ireland is an integral part of the United Kingdom, and therefore it is impossible to create individual rules. So the “apples of discord” to the British Parliament accurately enough.

Not subside and legal debate. The rule of the European court of justice in disputes between citizens and governments on the EU law annoys a certain part of the politics of the United Kingdom which believes that a British court should have the preeminence. Similarly — and with the law of the EU employment, social policy and environmental protection – these rules must continue to run the United Kingdom in accordance with the principle of equivalent standards. The influence of the European court on the law of the United Kingdom is sure to continue during the transitional period, however, the further fate of the relationship of EU law and law of the United Kingdom is not obvious.

Consequences: to be or not to be

The main question in the context of the consequences of Brexit — will the United Kingdom to leave the EU by agreement or without it? And here the card will fall.

If the Parliament is yet to adopt the document, after the agreed date there will come a period of transition. The UK will pay the EU compensation, and state authorities and the society will gradually get used to the restored parity relations with the EU.

If the agreement is not signed, in fact March 30, EU law will lose its force with respect to the United Kingdom. This will lead to a rise in food (especially fruits and vegetables) and billions of dollars in losses for customs payments. Some experts say that in the case without the agreement of the drop expected by the market real estate and travel services. Uncontrolled withdrawal from the EU also hit hard on the British educational integration of young people in Europe and Vice versa — because of the number of training programs.

Of course, all this can be avoided if you stay in the EU. In December last year, the European court ruled that the United Kingdom has the full right to unilaterally withdraw his application for an exit from the EU. So the question lies in a purely political plane.

The President of the European Council Donald Tusk announced that he would ask the EU about a grace period for Brexit .

This step Tusk can be regarded as an attempt to help the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Theresa may “scare” Brexit supporters to support the proposed agreement of withdrawal or agreed to be extended by an additional period of membership during which can soften the conditions. Moreover, even there could be the possibility of a second referendum. This position also reflects the understanding in the EU that a short delay of a few months (until 30 June) will not resolve parliamentary disputes. And it makes the script output of the United Kingdom from the EU without an agreement this summer is very likely.

Ukraine and the Brexit

If feel the Ukraine on at least some effect from the withdrawal of Britain from the EU and, Vice versa, from the stop Brexit? I think we’re just observers.

By the way, some Brits claim that Ukraine and the United Kingdom are in pretty similar circumstances — the society does not understand the actions of the government, and the government has become entangled in its domestic and foreign policy

It is unlikely that the Brexit situation will significantly affect our relationship with the EU. As a geopolitical player we don’t influence the processes within the Union, but we still advisable to abandon the part of the for Brexit . It’s a very difficult precedent — the first exit of the state from membership in the Union, and he needs professional evaluation on the basis of documents, not the political statements that our government so loves to throw.

I am convinced that the EU in the future will be interested in the Ukrainian migrants, considering Ukraine as a “donor” safe and skilled public workforce. Obviously, with Brexit or not, this direction will not change.

Will the life of our migrant workers in Albion? Most likely, to the same extent as the life of the average Englishman changed from Brexit. Again, it all depends on the availability of the agreement on the specific conditions. And we learn about them very soon.