Monday, July 27, the Euro on the Moscow exchange for the first time since April exceeded 84 rubles. Such dynamics analysts attribute the record strengthening of the single European currency against the dollar on the world market. In addition, investors continue to fear the beginning of the second wave of the pandemic coronavirus, which also puts pressure on the ruble. However, in favor of the Russian currency played by the actions of the Central Bank and stable macroeconomic indicators of the country, experts say. On this background, can change the dollar and the Euro in the near future at RT.

  • AFP

Monday, July 27, the Russian currency showed mixed trading on the Moscow exchange. In the middle of the day, the dollar was down 0.1% to 71.6 ruble, while the Euro grew by 1% and for the first time since April 2, reached 84.4 ruble.

The official exchange rates of the Central Bank on July 28 set at 71.59 rubles per dollar and 83,78 of ruble per Euro.

Largely observed the weakening of the Russian currency to the European associated with record appreciation of the Euro on the world market. This point of view in an interview with RT expressed by the Deputy head informatsionno-the analytical center “Alpari” Natalia Milchakova. At the auction on Monday the single European currency to the U.S. dollar increased by 1% and reached $1,176 per Euro. The figure was the highest since September 2018.

“Most likely, the strengthening of the Euro has affected the statistics released today. So, in July, the indices of economic expectations and the IFO showed that German growth has far exceeded the expectations of analysts. In the result, the mood of European investors has improved and the currency of the region began to rise in price”, — explained Natalia Milchakova.

At the same time a certain pressure on the Russian currency had concerns of financial market players regarding the spread of coronavirus in a number of countries. According to the Johns Hopkins University, from the beginning of July, the number of cases COVID-19 worldwide increased by almost 6 million and is currently approaching 16.5 million against this background, investors massively sell risky assets, including the ruble.

“Market participants see continuing risks of the second wave of the epidemic and understand that in the event of another quarantine’s economy was in negative consequences,” — said in an interview with RT analyst CC “FINAM” Alexey Korenev.

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Also, the Russian currency has to some extent responded to the adjustment in oil prices, says head of the analytical content “BCS” Ivan Kopeikin. On Monday, the cost of raw materials of benchmark Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange in London was down 1.5% to $43 per barrel.

At the same time, according to experts, is currently the global energy market shows no signs of panic. Thus, oil prices remain relatively stable in the near future will continue to fluctuate in the range of $40-45 per barrel, says Alexey Korenev.

According to experts, in recent days, the weakening of the ruble has kept the tax period. At this time, exporting companies traditionally sell foreign currency and buy rubles to pay taxes.

Moreover, support for the rouble continues to provide the Bank of Russia, analysts say. Recall that to stabilize the exchange rate since March 10, the regulator began a Pro-active sale of foreign currency on the domestic market. Thus, the Central Bank artificially increases the demand for rubles. In total, during this time, the volume of currency sales reached 1.05 trillion rubles.

In addition, in favor of the ruble played a stable macroeconomic factors of Russia. So, according to Ivan Kopeikin, investors are positive about the low level of national debt and the relatively high yields on Russian government bonds.

“First of all the currency supported by low debt burden of Russia and still attractive real interest rates in comparison with other countries. On this background till the end of summer, we do not expect strong changes in the dynamics of the ruble. Most likely, the dollar and the Euro against the ruble will remain close to current values,” explained Kopeikin in conversation with RT.

According to the forecast of Natalia Milchakova, by the end of July, the Euro may fall to 81 and 82 rubles. The relative stability of the dynamics of the Russian currency can provide a sharp weakening of the dollar on the world market, said Alexei Korenev.

“Today, in the US there is a number of accumulated problems that are associated with the same coronavirus. State governments are discussing the possibility of the introduction of new quarantine restrictions, which in turn may have a negative impact on the dollar and American economy in General. And investors of these risks is not needed. Soon a dollar can be purchased for around 71 to 74 of the ruble, while the Euro will trade at around 82-86 rubles,” — said the roots.