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According to the forecast of the investment Bank until the end of 2019, the hryvnia exchange rate will fall relative to the dollar from the current levels of 4 C – 31 UAH/$.
The hryvnia will fall to UAH 4 – forecast / photo UNIAN
Analysts at investment Bank Morgan Stanley is expected that by the end of 2019, the hryvnia exchange rate will fall relative to the dollar from the current levels of 4 C – 31 UAH/$ and 32.5 UAH/$ by the end of 2020.
See also the national Bank predicted the hryvnia in the coming months
It is reported by NV Business, citing Morgan Stanley report.
In 2020, Morgan Stanley analysts expect the NBU will reduce the discount rate to 14% and by the end of this year, the value of Ukraine’s debt to decline to 16%.
The American investment Bank analysts foresee a slowdown in GDP growth to 2.7% in 2019 and 2.6% in 2020. The current account deficit is forecast at 4% of GDP in 2019 and 3.6% in 2020.
“Political, macroeconomic uncertainty for investment, increased gas prices, high inflation, limiting the consumption of households” – so briefly described the economic situation in Ukraine in the report Morgan Stanley.
As UNIAN reported earlier, Ukrainian hryvnia at the official rate of the National Bank of Ukraine in March fell against the US dollar by 1.3% to 27.21 UAH/USD., but rose against the Euro on 0,3% – to 30.57 UAH/EUR.
With the beginning of the year, in January-March, the hryvnia strengthened against the dollar by 1.7%, the Euro by 3.6%.
According to the consensus forecast of experts polled by UNIAN, the exchange rate of hryvnia to the dollar at the end of 2019 will be about 30 UAH/USD.