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High compared to the second quarter, he said, is due to new records of productivity, export of our agricultural sector, growth rate of trade, construction, IT-sphere.
Illustration REUTERS

The state statistics service reported that real gross domestic product in the second quarter of 2019 increased by 4.6% compared to the second quarter of 2018.

Read takzheukraina can replicate the economic success of the Poland – experts

Bloomberg notes that the first signals inspire – the Ukrainian economy has accelerated growth, despite trade tensions between the U.S. and China and the global economic slowdown that weighs on the economic situation in Europe.

“GDP growth of 4.6% was unexpectedly fast. The world Bank warned that without an acceleration of the growth rate Ukraine will take half a century to catch up to neighboring Poland. President Vladimir Zelensky, whose party gained control of Parliament in elections, has promised to achieve GDP growth of 5% or more in the coming years. Announced a reform plan is cause for optimism among investors,” the article says.

Important reasons for the increase in growth, clarifies the issue, was the reduction of inflation and sound monetary and fiscal policy.

The second quarter figure is not yet, says economist Andrew Novak.

“The growth of the Ukrainian economy in the second quarter of 4.6% is certainly higher than in the last three years. But it is still impossible to call the trend, it will be visible at the end of the year on the results of the third and fourth quarter,” – said the expert, “Glavred”.

High compared to the second quarter, says Novak, is due to new records of productivity, export of our agricultural sector, growth rate of trade, construction, IT-sphere.

“And despite the decline of industry, the industries that provide high growth, pull the overall GDP growth to 4.6%. But the trends can only be determined at the end of the year”, – said the economist.

But the chance to repeat the economic breakthrough of Poland early to say. The reason is cyclical – growth is always followed by failures.

“We can grow at a more rapid rate than Poland. We had such examples in some years GDP growth was 12.5% per year in 2004. But in our country the cyclical nature is such that we have 3-4 years there was a small increase, and then a huge failure. Then again, a few years of small growth and then a huge drop to 10-15%. And now we have such that as of today, the physical production of goods and services, we still have not reached the first year of Independence, that is, 1991. This is due to the huge failures and the fact that in the 90s there were nine consecutive years of GDP decline, in contrast to the same in Poland, where economic growth started in the early 90s and continues today,” says Novak.

It calms – until the reasons for the fall in the economy.

“While we have no preconditions for the failure of the no. Unless, God forbid, there is some bloody massive escalation of the war with Russia. And it certainly drags again the fall of the economy. With regard to the trade war between China and the United States, which supposedly can affect the economy, the Ukraine is not much hurt. These States had a small trade, small amount of mutual investment, and so the trade war is mediated to us”, – the expert adds.

Economist Borys Kushniruk explains that the state statistics service has published just one line: “GDP growth of 4.6% in relation to last year”. Therefore, to make predictions before.

“No transcripts – where does this number come from, no. So today to talk about the analysis of these data before. Perhaps this is partly due to better results for the agricultural sector. They could provide additional growth compared to the second quarter of last year. And sustainable growth and a fundamental shift has yet to be achieved,” says Kushniruk.

The expert adds that the business has expectations – but they do not yet know what will be the economic policy of the government.

“On the one hand businesses have the hope that some reforms can be carried out faster. And at the same time there is a hang – it is impossible to predict what might happen from the point of view of economic policy”, – said the economist.

Transcript evaluations for the second quarter that gave the SSS will be at the end of August.

“Only then will become clear is the influence of the seasonal factor or something more sustainable. Perhaps a good harvest this year began to collect earlier. In this situation, GDP growth was much higher than in the same period last year, when the beginning of the grain harvest was later. And in that year this information is displayed in the third quarter. There is no reason to say that increased investment activity and the factors that may indicate the growth rate of GDP,” – said Kushniruk.

As UNIAN reported earlier, the growth of Ukraine’s real GDP in the second quarter of 2019 in annual terms compared with the second quarter of 2018 came in at 4.6 percent, accelerating from 2.5% in the previous quarter.

Reference to UNIAN. Real GDP growth of Ukraine in the 2018 accelerated to 3.3% from 2.5% in 2017 and was the highest for the last 7 years.

The state budget of Ukraine for the year 2019 based on the macroeconomic forecast of the government’s real GDP growth at 3%.

The national Bank in July raised its forecast for growth of Ukraine’s real GDP in 2019 to 3% from 2.5% projected earlier.

The international monetary Fund and the world Bank predicts economic growth of Ukraine in the current year by 2.7%.

According to the consensus forecast of experts polled by UNIAN, in 2019 the growth of Ukraine’s economy will slow to 2.8%.