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Turkish stuffing. There many good in support of Ukraine Erdogan

Turkish stuffing. There many good in support of Ukraine Erdogan

How Recep depicts the friendship of many and is not friendly with anyone

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Yesilada Atilla from Istanbul centre analysts once said that “Turkey has no foreign policy, she visits one night.”

This formula should keep in mind anyone who signs up with Recep Tayyip Erdogan, treaties, plans, and makes some of the joint Declaration. Ukraine’s leadership is no exception.

It’s not the fact that Kyiv and Ankara are strategic partners. Today’s Turkey is really not offering a strategic partnership to anyone. Such a step do not allow the age-old multi-vector foreign policy, domestic problems and personal ambitions of its leader. The latter is particularly.

Erdogan instigated the constitutional reform referendum which was held in April this year, launched the strengthening the already powerful presidency. While Erdogan was preparing a fateful event, he did not react to criticism of all sorts of the Venice Commission, but made a lot of the notoriously controversial statements.

He frightened the Netherlands sanctions, and the Dutch themselves have dubbed the descendants of the Nazis. He lashed out at Germany. He declared the Turk “future of Europe” and urged those who live in the Old world, to start to implement these expansive perspectives of five children. He threatened after the referendum to restore the death penalty. He kept telling me (starting in 2015) that Turkey is no longer interested in the question of joining the EU. He had a fight with Washington because of Fethullah Gulen, living in USA since 1999, demanding his extradition as the organizer of the coup in July 2016. He quarreled and then reconciled with Moscow. In General, behaved like a bull in a China shop.

For whom was all a performance? For Europe? For the United States? For Russia? No, Erdogan needed the support of radical forces inside the country. He was ready to represent “exports” a sort of Enfant terrible of the Bosphorus spill.

Just to attract them to their side and to hold a referendum conceived scenario. Some analysts linked his outrageous foreign policy with this intrinsic factor, suggesting that soon will end the Saga with the referendum, erdoğan in the international arena will be much more predictable.

The focus, however, is that in the foreseeable future this is unlikely to happen. The scenario is simple. To the implementation of the amendments to the Constitution will be given two years. Therefore, until April 2019, Erdogan will need some way to resist the onslaught of the opposition to secure a final victory. And expect it will have for those guys — nationalists, Islamists, radicals, which were focused all his fiery speeches, said on the eve of the plebiscite. And then there will come a time of election fever — the President and the Parliament in Turkey will choose in November of the same year.

The situation is somewhat similar to Russian: “nationwide” support of the leader is bought at the price of finding external enemies. The only difference is that Erdogan has developed his mysterious mechanism of walking in a circle. From enemy to enemy. Or, perhaps, from polydrug to polovragi and back. Even truncated the last month of meetings and statements of the Turkish leader is a very funny “navigation map”.

September 21, Erdogan is on the 72th session of the UN General Assembly meets with trump. After the conversation, leaves the Declaration on strategic partnership and condemnation of the referendum and the Iraqi Kurds.

September 28, Erdogan hosts Putin. Discuss everything from the situation in Syria to the Turkish tomatoes and the “Turkish stream” (a bone in the throat of Ukraine). Presidents do not say whether the topic of the supply of Moscow anti-aircraft missile systems s-400. But the next day the Kremlin confirm that the Turkish side made an advance payment. And she wanted to spit that “Washington uptight” about this. Let “strategic partner” be concerned and will offer some other tasty deal.

And to think trump was an energetic, in early October, followed by the arrest of an employee of the US Consulate General in Istanbul (motif — relationship with the Gulen). And issued a warrant for the arrest of another employee of the U.S. Embassy. States in response to suspend the issuance of nonimmigrant visas in Ankara. Erdogan mimics their step. The scandal erupted.

October 9, Erdogan in Kiev, shakes hands with Poroshenko. Almost falling asleep in a meeting with reporters, but claims not to recognize the annexation of Crimea by Russia. On the same day Moscow will know about the introduction by Ankara of the new order of import of agricultural products from Russia. Of course, not in the direction favored. A day earlier the head of the Turkish foreign Ministry reports about the possible cancellation of the purchase of s-400, if Moscow will not give the buyer access to the production of the weapons. Well, logical. Let Putin does something I do not relax.

We would be happy about this. But Erdogan, continuing their voyage, flies to Serbia to discuss the future “Turkish stream.” Rainbow for Moscow, Ankara and Belgrade, but deadly for Ukraine.

Fit to write: and so on and so forth… Because this is the usual demeanor of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to pretend friendship with many and not be friends with anyone. Promise with the same speed with which to take the promise back. To benefit from some to blackmail others with it.

Child shopping Bosphorus, the current leader of Turkey realized that the strategic situation no better example of the strategic partnership. It perfectly sold. The key is to learn to use it. Now it is important that this is understood in Ukraine. At least for security purposes.

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